Theses and Dissertations (Graduate School of Technology Management (GSTM))

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Electricity system resilience for increasing variable renewable energy in South Africa - a framework
Mashele, Lungile Mikateko Muhlavasi (University of Pretoria, 2026-01-05)
Globally, there is an increase in variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as solar and wind power, which pose a threat to energy system resilience. As South Africa increases its VRE, both grid-tied and behind-the-meter, the system operator faces significant challenges in balancing the grid.This thesis begins by delving into these challenges, which are illustrated by the intermittency of VRE sources, as well as the ever-increasing duck curve. The literature review unpacks the evolution of resilience theory, beginning with the seminal contributions of CS Holling (Holling, 1973). It critically examines the various definitions that have emerged and compares their underlying principles. Resilience in energy systems broadly refers to the ability of the energy system to withstand, adapt to and recover from disruptions, while maintaining essential functions. This ability is crucial for integrating VRE into existing grids.The thesis explores the key distinctions between engineering and ecological perspectives on resilience, highlighting the implications for understanding and fostering resilience in complex systems.The thesis develops criteria for energy system resilience, which encompasses several key elements: the integration of renewables, grid flexibility, redundancy and diversification, accurate forecasting and predictive analytics, regulatory and policy support, community and stakeholder engagement, economic viability and environmental sustainability. These elements need to be considered when designing a framework for a stable and resilient energy system. Using case studies and a Delphi survey, the thesis identified four threats to energy system resilience: grid instability, infrastructure vulnerability, regulatory and policy coherence, and intermittency.By incorporating the energy system resilience criteria and threats, the energy system resilience framework proposed in this thesis aims to guide policymakers, energy planners and stakeholders in developing robust and adaptable energy systems. In testing the framework, a multi-criteria decision-making approach was used, specifically the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), to assign weights to the resilience criterion. This was followed by an AHP risk-adjusted process, where the likelihood and impact of the risks to energy system resilience were calculated to establish a risk score. This, together with the weightings, was computed to give an AHP risk-adjusted score, which was tested with a prominent expert in the field of resilience.Lastly, mitigants for energy system resilience were proposed as observed from the literature, as well as an innovative approach to balance increasing VRE in southern Africa with the unique threats the system faces. Through the development of the framework and the AHP risk-adjusted score, the thesis expands the body of knowledge in the field of energy system resilience, with a particular focus on southern Africa. This is done through a framework that enables energy systems to withstand and recover from disruptions, while adapting to future challenges, ultimately contributing to a sustainable and resilient energy future.This thesis underscores the imperative of a comprehensive and dynamic approach to energy system resilience as South Africa navigates its transition towards greater reliance on VRE. By synthesising theoretical insights, empirical evidence and practical frameworks, it lays the groundwork for informed decision making and strategic planning. The proposed energy system resilience framework is designed not only to address current vulnerabilities, but also to anticipate future disruptions, ensuring that the energy sector can adapt and thrive amid evolving challenges. Ultimately, this research aspires to foster a resilient, sustainable and inclusive energy future for South Africa, capable of supporting the ecological resilience of the energy system.
Identification and production of valuable bio-based chemicals for industrial implementation in South Africa
Mandree, Prisha (University of Pretoria, 2026-01-19)
Emissions arising from fossil fuel derived products and waste disposed to landfill have prompted the need for alternative sustainable technologies such as bio-based chemicals. Currently, South Africa has a great dependency on imports and limited local manufacturing of bio-based chemicals. The adoption of bio-based chemicals contributes to the growth of the South African bioeconomy and requires the development of viable technologies that meet the market and industry requirements. The research investigated the feasibility of implementing a bio-based technology in South Africa by adopting a holistic phased approach that integrated stakeholder insights, technical feasibility, and economic performance. Drawing on global bioeconomy trends and bio-based platform chemical opportunities, the research initially focused on strategic products for further evaluation. Following a stakeholder needs analysis with key stakeholders from government, academia, and industry, the market attractiveness of adopting pertinent bio-based chemicals in South Africa was determined using thematic network analysis. Bioethanol and bio-lactic acid were identified as key products for further investigation. Using industrial feedstock such as sugar cane molasses, a pre-feasibility study evaluating the technical viability of producing bioethanol and bio-lactic acid at pilot scale was conducted. The bio-lactic acid pilot process was demonstrated to be superior in performance compared to the bioethanol process. This was followed by a feasibility study, in which a full techno-economic assessment of the commercial-scale production of the selected product intermediate of interest, bio-lactic acid, was conducted, including sensitivity analysis to identify critical cost drivers. The findings indicated that the redirection of sugar cane into alternative value chains is a key driver for industrialisation of bio-based chemicals. Other key drivers included global market demand and abundance of bio-based feedstock, whereas key barriers included product price competitiveness, policy implementation, infrastructure, and scale-up finance. The financial analysis outcomes revealed that although bio-lactic acid production was technically and economically feasible, with a positive net present value (NPV) of R2.64 billion and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 20.44%, feedstock and utilities were significant contributors to total upstream production costs. Furthermore, the selling price of the bio-lactic acid product intermediate, bioreactor costs, production rates, and power consumption were identified as crucial parameters that impact economic competitiveness of the product. The research concluded with targeted recommendations for government, industry, and researchers to enable sustainable chemical manufacturing aligned with national priorities. The research demonstrated that South Africa holds significant potential for bio-based chemicals, specifically bio-lactic acid, provided that key barriers are addressed. This research approach can be applied across emerging technologies to support strategic decision-making in bio-product industrialisation. The research contributes to the maturity of the bio-based chemicals industry in South Africa. It is also aimed at guiding policy-makers and other stakeholders on the supporting mechanisms required to industrialise the sector.
An analysis of systemic barriers to innovation in digital learning in African universities - case studies in Kenya and Rwanda
Mbaya, Martin N. (University of Pretoria, 2025-09-19)
This study aims to contribute to research on digital learning and innovation barriers while providing a useful framework for policy makers globally. The main objective was to determine the barriers to digital learning innovation in Africa based on the experience of universities. The specific objective was to identify the role that universities can play in enhancing digital learning innovation and the subsequent opportunities they can harness by addressing such barriers. The study addresses the gap of limited research on existing barriers that are systemic. The study uses a mixed methods approach that combines mapping of the digital learning landscape, a systematic literature review and a comparative case study. It explores systemic barriers to innovation in digital learning within universities in Kenya and Rwanda. The original contribution to knowledge is a conceptual framework supported by two typologies (digital learning institutions and systemic barriers) that link digital learning as innovation, to national innovation systems and universities as units of analysis. Case studies of universities in Kenya and Rwanda between 2013 and 2025 show different patterns in how policy regimes, leadership and systemic barriers interact. In Kenya a strong market-driven policy regime achieved through industry-academia leadership overcomes four dominant systemic barriers: political; financial/economic; socio-cultural and technological. Kenya demonstrates a unique pattern of a gradually strengthening / dynamic system of innovation in an African context with dissipating capabilities in digital learning within public universities. between 2016 and 2025 the Webometrics ranking of Kenyatta University declines. Between 2008-2025, market coordinated systemic leadership is provided by private universities like Strathmore, innovative institutions like KENET and private sector actors like Google, Microsoft and Safaricom. In Rwanda, a strong state-driven policy regime achieved through decisive leadership overcomes three dominant systemic barriers: financial/economic; socio-cultural and technological. Rwanda demonstrates a unique pattern of a consistently strong national innovation system in an African context, with concentrating capabilities in digital learning within the public university system. Between 2016 and 2025, the Webometrics ranking of the University of Rwanda ascends following a merger in 2013. Between 2011 and 2025 state coordinated systemic leadership is provided by Carnegie Mellon University Africa with support from the African Development Bank and the Mastercard Foundation. The study makes three contributions. First, the stronger and more dynamic the system of innovation is, the greater its capability to address more barriers as an entrepreneurial state. Second, entrepreneurial universities drive strong and dynamic innovation systems (entrepreneurial states) which unlock barriers to innovations in digital learning. Third, leadership (institutional and individual) is a key agent of a strong innovation system that overcomes systemic barriers. A key conclusion is that distributed leadership by the quadruple helix actors of industry, academia, government and civil society is important in overcoming systemic barriers to innovation in digital learning. There is an opportunity for future research by: expanding case studies to cover more universities and national innovation systems; analysing the use of university ranking indices to study innovation in digital learning; and undertaking further econometric analysis focused on digital learning in universities and national innovation systems.
Digital transformation in the public sector : realising its potential or hamstrung by incumbents?
Dlamini, Sabelo (University of Pretoria, 2025-04)
Digital transformation is a strategic priority for all governments seeking to improve the efficiency of public service delivery. However, some governments have encountered difficulties in making this transformation due to various social, economic, political and technological challenges. This thesis examines processes of digital transformation using an approach based on two separate theories of transition in socio-technical systems (technological innovation systems and multi-level perspective) in an attempt to identify the necessary factors for successful change. The research was undertaken in four separate phases. In Phase One, an inter-country comparison of four different countries, the United States of America, India, Estonia and South Africa, using secondary data was completed. Phases Two and Three covered two separate case studies of digital transformation projects within the public sector (the broadcasting industry and the electronic vaccine data system, respectively), one unsuccessful and the other successful. Each case study included fifteen in-depth interviews with key decision-makers and actors within each innovation system and a detailed analysis of a range of secondary sources. Finally, in the final phase, a cross-case analysis of the two case studies was undertaken in order to highlight the key success factors. The research concluded that important factors for digital transformation in the public sector are the strength of the knowledge base, well-developed capacity in the necessary supporting infrastructure, market openness, cultural practices supportive of change, and clear public sector policies. It is strongly recommended that policymakers, researchers, and practitioners should better understand the critical socio-technical aspects that need to be in place to construct a successful digital migration journey. The research project presents insights that digital transformation efforts are vulnerable to being derailed by entrenched regimes and existing power structures. To prevent this, active state involvement is paramount. The absence of such intervention can lead to a situation where a dominant private sector exerts undue influence, potentially undermining state-driven digital advancement. The projects, as highlighted in the case studies, face substantial risks from entrenched power structures and opposition from existing systems. The mitigation of these obstacles is crucial for successful implementation, necessitating robust state involvement. Without an active governmental policy, private sector dominance may compromise the integrity and effectiveness of state-driven digital initiatives. Overall, this research project provided novel insights into the complexities of socio-technical transitions, emphasising the role of institutional dynamics, external pressures, and governance strategies in shaping digital transformation. While the research achieved its objectives, it also highlighted areas where further exploration is necessary, particularly in enhancing policy responsiveness, system sustainability, and cross-sectoral comparisons.
Stakeholder expectations and perceptions of the role of the project management office in local government : a case study
Mothowamodimo, Willie Ofentse (University of Pretoria, 2023-04)
There are few studies on the organisational role in project management specifically in Project Management Offices (PMOs) in the public sector. There is also limited research on the role of PMOs in South Africa and even less research on human behavioural factors that may impact on its effectiveness and value of these PMOs. The objective of this study is to analyse project management stakeholders’ expectations and perceptions of the role(s) of the PMO in South African local government. The author followed a qualitative approach using an in-depth and exploratory singlecase study of the City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality (CoTMM) wherein twenty (20) participants were interviewed and their transcripts were coded and analysed with the assistance of the ATLAS.ti software. The results of this study demonstrate that there are inconsistencies between the mandated role of the PMO and what the stakeholders expect from them. The roles and functions expected by stakeholders from the PMO are inconsistent and unrealistic. The stakeholder’s perceptions of the roles and functions of the PMO are not in congruence with their unrealistic expectations; therefore, it is currently viewed as not delivering value. This leads to the PMO staff experiencing role stress. The results of this study therefore, support the literature reviewed as well as the theories used to develop the conceptual framework. The author recommends that to enable the PMO to improve the effectiveness and provide more value, (1) the CoTMM, and municipalities in South Africa, should review the role(s) of the PMO in the municipality through an Organisational Role Analysis (ORA) process; and (2) municipalities should implement a gradual implementation of the PMO model, roles and functions starting at a basic operational level, progressing to an intermediate tactical level, and finally an advanced strategic level.
A systems approach to cognitive bias influences on stakeholders in the circular economy
Van der Linde, Leandi (University of Pretoria, 2025-02)
With Systems Engineering as the compass and Systems Thinking as the guide, this thesis navigates the labyrinth of the Circular Economy and Sustainability frameworks, seeking to unravel the mysteries of decision-making in a complex world. Each page turned is a step forward, a triumph, as you uncover the interconnected threads that weave together the fabric of our society. From the intricacies of sustainable systems to the nuances of human behaviour, this journey is a testament to the power of knowledge and the courage to pursue truth in an ever-changing world. In the evolving landscape of global economies, reshaped by information technology and digitisation, the relevance of sustainability has never been more pronounced. Amid growing environmental concerns and pressures for sustainability, the Circular Economy emerges as a viable alternative to the traditional Linear Economy, emphasising resource reduction and recirculation. However, decision-making within the Circular Economy is often complicated by the presence of cognitive biases among stakeholders, both internal and external. This thesis explores the intersection of Systems Engineering, Sociotechnical Systems and Circular Economy, aiming to develop a systematic framework that links cognitive biases to unsustainable activities. Through a comprehensive analysis that includes design science research methodology, this research identifies critical leverage points for leveraging biases and enhancing sustainable decision-making. By first conceptualising a few models for sustainable decision-making in the Circular Economy, the study provides development and evaluation measures to give valuable insights to practitioners and policymakers, facilitating the implementation of effective sustainability practices. The findings underscore the importance of understanding and addressing cognitive biases to advance the Circular Economy and promote a more sustainable and equitable global economy. This research contributes significantly to the field of Systems Engineering and sustainability by developing a novel framework that integrates cognitive biases into decision-making processes within the Circular Economy. By systematically analysing how cognitive biases influence stakeholder decisions, this study provides measurable insights into the barriers and facilitators of sustainable practices. The framework was validated through empirical testing, demonstrating improvement in stakeholder decision alignment with sustainability goals. This integration enhances the predictive accuracy of systems models and offers actionable strategies for practitioners to mitigate the negative impacts of biases, making this research a pivotal step toward more effective and sustainable decision-making in complex systems.
Sustainable supply chain risk management for agricultural projects
Bai, Yan (University of Pretoria, 2024)
In today’s era of globalisation and environmental change, there is a growing focus on sustainability and risk management in agriculture, which forms the basis of the global food supply chain. With challenges such as population growth, resource limitations and climate change becoming more pronounced, ensuring the stability and sustainability of the agricultural supply chain has become critical. Throughout the production process, agricultural projects must address natural risks such as droughts, floods, pests, and diseases while also navigating market volatility, policy changes, and uncertainty in international trade. Research on sustainable supply chain risk management for agricultural projects is developing towards multi-dimensional, systematic, and practical applications, aiming to provide theoretical and practical support for the sustainable development of agricultural supply chains. Sustainable supply chain risk management is an interdisciplinary field that seeks to enhance the resilience of the supply chain and ensure its long-term stability and sustainable development through the integrated consideration of economic, environmental, and social factors. The primary focus of sustainable supply chain risk management is to identify, assess, and mitigate potential risks in the supply chain while enhancing its transparency and flexibility to accommodate changes in market and environmental conditions. The agricultural supply chain faces many risks, including price volatility, supply uncertainty, quality and safety concerns, climate change impacts, and changes in policies and regulations. These risks threaten the stability of agricultural production and affect food security and the interests of consumers. As such, it is practically and strategically important to study sustainable supply chain risk management in agricultural projects. This study examines the current situation, risk factors, and network structure of sustainable supply chain risk management in agricultural projects. Using methods such as literature review, case analysis, and model construction, it explores how to enhance the sustainability of the agricultural supply chain through risk management and reduce the impact of risks on agricultural production and market supply. This thesis opens with an introduction that outlines the background, research problem, purpose, methodology, and structure of the study. Chapter 2 offers a thorough review of the theory and research related to project management in agricultural supply chains, with a specific focus on sustainable practices. It also highlights the importance of risk management in agricultural supply chain projects. Moreover, the chapter emphasizes the integration of operations management with project management to enhance the performance of agricultural supply chains. It reviews existing gaps in research and practice, identifying areas where further study is necessary to address the evolving challenges of sustainable agricultural supply chain management. The second chapter utilizes a literature method to understand the foundational research conducted by previous scholars. Chapter 3 examines the characteristics of agricultural products and their supply chains, analysing the factors that influence supply chain mode choices and discussing the various existing project modes. This chapter underscores the significance of project management in optimizing agricultural supply chains and proposes strategies for project optimization and development. Chapter 3 employs a comparative analysis method to examine and contrast five distinct agricultural product modes. Chapter 4 explores the role of project management in achieving sustainable supply chains. It discusses the concept of sustainability, the application of project management methodologies, and the principles underlying sustainable supply chains. Chapter 4 provides a qualitative analysis of the current status of sustainable supply chain projects. Chapter 5 analyses the risks associated with sustainable supply chain projects, including economic, environmental, and social risks. Chapter 5 employs qualitative analysis to examine the risks associated with sustainable supply chains. Chapter 6 discusses the characteristics and types of supply chain networks, emphasizing the importance of understanding the supply chain structure. Chapter 7 presents a design for a sustainable network architecture, detailing the construction of a supply chain network model and the principles of supply chain network planning. It introduces a mathematical model for sustainable supply chains and includes an illustrative case study. Chapter 7 utilizes model analysis, case analysis, and systems research method to design the sustainable network structure. Finally, Chapter 8 concludes the thesis by summarizing the key findings and contributions of the research. Sustainable supply chain risk management in agricultural projects is vital for ensuring food safety, promoting agricultural modernization, coping with environmental changes, and promoting sustainable socio-economic development. This study offers new theoretical insights and practical guidance in agricultural supply chain management, helping related enterprises and policymakers to better understand and address supply chain risks. It also promotes the development of a more sustainable and resilient agricultural supply chain. Additionally, this research establishes a foundation and provides inspiration for future studies in related fields. The thesis proposes a set of indicators for evaluating the sustainability of the agricultural supply chain, leading to the development of a systematic framework for assessing the sustainability of agricultural supply chains. These indicators encompass the environmental, economic, and social aspects of supply chains, providing new tools for researchers and practitioners to assess supply chain sustainability. In helping companies and policymakers better understand and improve their agricultural supply chains, the outlined indicators have practical applications in agriculture supply chain management. The model laid out in this study also assists academics to better describe and optimise agricultural supply chains by providing unique theoretical contributions to the field.
Sustainable management of mobile telecommunications systems
Bisanda, Mugisha Philip (University of Pretoria, 2024-12-17)
It is widely acknowledged that human society is transcending through the era of Society 5.0 with increasing impetus provided by the rapidly evolving technologies of the fourth industrial revolution. The era of Society 5.0 is characterized by rapid technological evolutions as well as volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous stressors arising from the effects of unprecedented events such as geopolitical tensions and socio-economic transitions, further exacerbated by climate change, global warming, and pandemics. There is also a general understanding that sustainability is the paramount paradigm for the Society 5.0 era. Subsequently, and due to increasing concerns about the effects of climate change, the predominant context has been the environmental dimension of the sustainability paradigm. However, in recent times, economic, business, technology and even socio-political aspects have emerged as other dimensions to study and operationalize the sustainability paradigm. The sustainability of technological systems, such as cellular mobile telecommunications networks, is paramount in the current era of Society 5.0. Mobile telecommunications systems pervade all aspects of human endeavour in the sense that they not only facilitate hyper-interconnectivity and inter-communicability between individuals but also, telecommunications systems create high levels of interdependency between all actors, agents, and man-made things that facilitate commerce, governance, industry, and society. In conjunction with the imperatives of the sustainability paradigm, issues such as rapidly evolving technologies, increasing regulatory concerns, complex business relations and vagarious consumer expectations represent serious challenges for the management of mobile telecommunications systems. For the study discussed in this thesis, the primary issue is how to manage mobile telecommunications systems in a manner that conforms to the sustainability paradigm. A literary analysis of the sustainability paradigm as well as the concepts of leadership, resiliency, and innovativeness provided theoretical underpinnings for the conceptual framework for the study. The research examined the life stages of the physical structures and business models, as well as the value networks of mobile telecommunications systems, taking into consideration the ongoing rapid technological evolutions. A multi-method qualitative approach grounded on the sustainability paradigm was applied for this research study. The study encompassed preliminary case studies of mobile telecommunications systems (MTS) firms in various parts of the world, followed by detailed analyses of the influences of leadership, resiliency, and innovativeness constructs on sustainable management of such MTS firms via semi-structured interviews with dozens of industry experts and non-participatory observation of discussion panels of industry leaders and experts at the AfricaCom 2022. So far, the research outputs include (i) initial findings from the literary study leading to the conceptual model presented and published in the 2021 conference proceedings of the International Association for the Management of Technology; (ii) “an empirical examination of the role of leadership for the sustainable management of mobile telecommunications” which was presented and published in the conference proceedings of PICMET 2022; (ii) a pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic trend analyses of a dozen firms which provided some insights regarding the resiliency of mobile telecommunications systems, and which was published in the conference proceedings of PICMET 2023. Considering that there is a technological dimension to the sustainability paradigm, this thesis posits an integrated framework for the sustainable management of mobile telecommunications systems. The framework can be applied to examine whether or not a delineated mobile telecommunications system is being sustainably managed. The thesis is that within the volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous characterisation of Society 5.0. the triple-helix integration of leadership, resiliency, and innovativeness is paramount for sustainable management in general, and of mobile telecommunications systems in particular. The proposed framework not only holds practical implications for the sustainability of MTS businesses and organisations in both public and private sectors but also serves as a foundation for further scholarly research regarding the technological dimension of sustainability.
Technology forecasting for national research and education networks using structural equation modelling-based context-sensitive data fusion
Staphorst, Leonard (University of Pretoria, 2024-07-03)
Technology Intelligence entails an intricate process of gathering and transforming data related to technological advancements into refined actionable intelligence by identifying and analysing emergent characteristics and inter-relational linkages. Specialists in this field process this refined information to develop knowledge critical for directing strategic technology management decisions. As primary sources of technology-related data, technology indicators facilitate an expansive characterisation and evaluation of various technologies throughout their entire lifecycle. Engaging in Future-oriented Technology Analysis necessitates a rigorous examination of in-formation from these indicators, equipping decision-makers with sophisticated insights for Technology Forecasting, a vital tool in anticipating and preparing for future technology trends and developments. This study posits that one can conceptualise Technology Forecasting as a context-sensitive Data Fusion process using Structural Equation Modelling. To this end, this study undertook inductive reasoning to develop generic frameworks for Structural equation Modelling, context-sensitive Data Fusion and the relational mapping of technology indicators for Technology Forecasting, employing analytic literature assessment, conceptual framework development and grounded theory as supportive research methodologies. These generic frameworks were then integrated through inductive reasoning, incorporating comparative and cross-disciplinary analyses and framework unification to develop the study's proposed framework for Technology Forecasting using Structural Equation Modelling-based, context-sensitive Data Fusion. The proposed Technology Forecasting framework includes methodologies and processes for integrating data from varied sources while emphasising the importance of complex hierarchal relational interconnections and context-related information to augment technology indicator relevance. Data Fusion methods attuned to context refine the output knowledge produced by accounting for the influence of external, context-related variables. Structural Equation Modelling is a robust statistical methodology that can discern and assess the complex hierarchical relationships between latent and observable variables within a given problem and its context, demonstrating efficacy in executing context-sensitive Data Fusion. The study developed an autoregression model instantiation of the framework, tailored explicitly for longitudinal forecasting in the National Research and Education Network technology do-main. This model instantiation, formulated through deductive reasoning, incorporates insights from action research within the South African National Research Network. It is supplemented by analysis of secondary data from the Trans-European Research and Education Network As-sociation's Compendiums, which record infrastructure, services, and ecosystem-related trends for National Research and Education Networks in Europe. This autoregressive model instantiation, although found suboptimal, innovatively delineated various technology-related indicators from the National Research and Education Network technology domain as distinct model technology-related constructs, for example, the measurements of core network traffic, while also integrating indicators for context-related constructs, such as the spectrum of institutions typically serviced by National Research and Education Networks. Employing secondary data from the Trans-European Research and Education Network Association's annual Compendiums, the study undertook a Partial Least Squares regression analysis to empirically evaluate this autoregressive model instantiation to ascertain key model parameters, such as indicator loadings and path coefficients. The study also engaged in an extensive reliability and validity analysis of this model instantiation, affirming the empirical analysis's repeatability and the model instantiation's internal consistency in providing technology forecasting outputs in the National Research and Education Network technology domain. Next, the study developed a cross-sectional model instantiation for the National Research and Education Network technology domain. Although incapable of longitudinal technology forecasting, this model instantiation marked a considerable improvement in performance over the autoregressive model instantiation. Its development not only amalgamated knowledge from action research conducted within the South African National Research Network and insights from the annual Compendiums of the Trans-European Research and Education Networking Association but also hypotheses from scholarly literature. Partial Least Squares regression analysis, employing data from the Trans-European Research and Education Network Association Compendiums, confirmed various hypothesised relationships, except the anticipated positive correlation between a National Research and Education Network's infrastructure and advanced services capabilities. This exception underscores the influence of technology leapfrogging within the National Research and Education Network community, potentially disrupting established technology development and adoption patterns. The study concluded with an extensive analysis of the proposed framework's strengths and weaknesses. Informed by a broad scholarly discourse on the strengths and weaknesses of Data Fusion and Structural Equation Modelling, this evaluation scrutinised the framework's capability to incorporate context-related information in forecasting computations and its potential susceptibility to inaccuracies arising from structural model misspecification. This investigation employed various model instances specific to the National Research and Education Network technology domain for this assessment, including a structurally disarranged model instantiation. This study heralds a transformative advancement in Technology Forecasting, particularly within the National Research and Education Networks technology domain, by introducing a novel amalgamation of Structural Equation Modelling and context-sensitive Data Fusion to perform transversal and longitudinal technology prediction using technology and context-related indicators. This innovative approach contributes to Engineering and Technology Management by offering an advanced tool for strategic planning and technology trend analysis. The core publications from the study demonstrated the development, practical application and assessment of this integrated framework. In contrast, the study’s supplementary publications enhanced the understanding and application of Partial Least Squares analysis tools to perform the regression analysis required to create various model instantiations for the National Research and Education Networks technology domain.
Innovation for Survivability, Resilience, and Competitive Advantage During a Crisis: The Case of Cross-Country Transport Ltd in a Covid-19 Pandemic.
Otuokwu, Daniel (University of Pretoria, 2023-10-15)
Commercial road transport, both passenger and freight, has been hit hard by COVID-19 due to transport restrictions imposed to contain the pandemic and the general economic downturn. While COVID-19 has shown unfathomable challenges to organizations, the pandemic has enabled numerous organizations to unleash their ability to innovate in the middle of a crisis and cleared the way to become resilient further into the future. This research focused on the strategic innovation phenomena where innovation plays a critical role in helping organizations to be sustainable during times of crisis. The study explains this through analysis and insights from the Nigerian Road Transportation Sector, taking the case of Cross-Country Transport Ltd. The research explored the impact of the covid-19 crisis on the business operations of the case organization, the results and analysis showed that the pandemic had a significant economic impact on the company’s business operations. In addition to the adoption of a cost-cutting strategy as a measure to avoid insolvency, the company’s adherence to the lockdown and health measures as a response to the pandemic was viewed as a positive retort. Also, it was found that the case study company did not come up with any innovative strategies during the lockdown, however, post-lockdown saw a move towards online boarding instead of the traditional way of boarding. Based on the results, the company did not see an adjustment to its business model during the lockdown and post-lockdown, showing a lack of flexibility, and an innovative ecosystem within the organization. Although the 4IR digital technologies are evolving, they gave a competitive advantage to organizations that incorporated them during the lockdown. The objective was to test the preparedness strategy of the case study organization for the future adoption of these emerging technologies. The results showed that most staff had low knowledge of industry 4.0 technologies with disruption capacity in the sector of the company’s operations. Although the company is looking into developing policies that will help support its preparedness strategy towards the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies. This research also proposed a conceptual model that identifies the strategic innovation framework for crisis anticipation such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The model can support organizations to become resilient, competitive, and innovative during crisis response. Since the transportation industry is prone to crisis, the need to adopt a strategic response in anticipation of a crisis that impacts business organizations becomes imperative. Although there were limitations encountered during the study, recommendations for future studies were outlined.
Strategic management of technology-enabled capabilities : a dynamic capabilities approach to strategically aligned value creation
Jacobs, Jónatan (University of Pretoria, 2021)
Organisations are finding it increasingly difficult to create value in the current dynamic, globalised, interconnected, and ever more complex business and technology environments. The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) is set to increase these challenges as a result of the increasing complexity and dynamic changes in market, societal, and technological trends. While current technological trends potentially offer great value to organisations, emerging technological implementations and transformations often fail to realise the desired value creation outcomes. This research study takes an exploratory sequential mixed method approach to first articulate what the major challenges to technology-enabled value creation efforts entail, before devising a means to address the defined problem statement. Following an initial exploratory study with qualitative interviews, it was determined that the major challenges to technology-enabled value creation initiatives, in the current dynamic environment, can be linked to a dynamic capabilities perspective of strategic management. This perspective encompasses the dynamic adaptation of enabling capabilities to enact strategic alignment between the external environment and an organisation’s value creation system hierarchies. These hierarchies broadly include the organisation’s strategies, its strategy execution, and its capability creation, adaptation, and management. Dynamic capabilities are defined from a system perspective and are presented as functioning to enable this desired strategic alignment. The second phase of this study takes a deductive research approach that builds on the developed theory to develop and test operational hypotheses. This research phase is executed through a descriptive research design using quantitative methods to provide a valid representation of the observed phenomena. The first part of this representation takes the form of a three-dimentional model to conceptualise the strategic management of technology-enabled capabilities, from a dynamic capabilities perspective on value creation, within the context of the 4IR. This model consists of and/or correlates with various frameworks that are either referenced or developed within this study from a systems perspective. These include but are not limited to a new perspective on technology-enabled capabilities, a strategic planning roadmapping framework to support execution in practice, and an illustrative system architecture framework for Industry 4.0 to demonstrate conformity with current 4IR related conceptualisations. This conceptual model addresses an identified need to illustrate the interconnectedness of three different dimensions. These include the dynamic capabilities approach to maintain strategic alignment (enabling functional alignment), across the value creation system hierarchies of an organisation (enabling integration), over the value creation lifecycle (enabling temporal synchronisation). The model thereby serves to provide context to the complex system surrounding the strategic management of technology-enabled capabilities, from a dynamic capabilities perspective on strategically aligned value creation. The model is tested, by testing hypotheses through quantitative analyses of survey responses from large organisations operating in dynamic environments (such as during the global pandemic in 2020) and the outcomes are discussed. The main hypothesis proposes that organisations with higher strategic alignment capacities, as conceptualised within the presented model, will also have higher value creation capacities within dynamic environments. This hypothesis is validated by showcasing strong correlations (ρ = 0.74) between the defined independent and dependent constructs, which relate to a dynamic capabilities approach to strategic alignment and more effective value creation capacities within large organisations, respectively. This seems to indicate that the hypothesis is correct, meaning that the higher the strategic alignment capacities of organisations are as a function of more effective dynamic capabilities that constitute their dynamic alignment competencies, the higher their value creation capacities are as a function of more effective value creating and capturing competencies. Furthermore, this seems to give credence to the structure of the conceptual model that gives context to the relationship between strategic alignment (and its elements from a systems perspective on the strategic management of dynamic capabilities) and the value creation system of organisations (and the elements representing this system’s function). The study closes with recommendations for future research, such as to expand on this study with a larger sample, to replicate the study for small and medium sized firms, to explore the identified trends further such as that South African industries have not yet begun actual 4IR related technological transformations, and to define value metrics to assess the value of capabilities that emerging technologies may enable. Lastly, recommendations for the application of the research outcomes in practice are given. These are focussed on the required systems perspective of dynamic capabilities to create dynamic alignment capacities that could maintain continual strategic alignment in the face of dynamic change. Some practical principles are provided, such as for the development of toolkits to perform these functions in practical and structured strategic workshops along with a roadmapping framework to contextualise value creation efforts and their interdependencies over various execution timeframes.
Science, technology and innovation indicators for the bioeconomy in South Africa : a scientometric assessment
Bambo, Thabang Lazarus (University of Pretoria, 2021-11)
The South African Cabinet approved the South African Bioeconomy Strategy in 2013. This was followed by the launch of the Strategy in January 2014 by the Department of Science and Innovation. Bioeconomy is a recent term following the term biotechnology and encompasses activities that make use of bio-innovations based on biological sources, materials and processes to generate sustainable economic, social and environmental development. The vision is for South Africa’s bioeconomy to be a significant contributor to the country’s economy by 2030 in terms of the gross domestic product (GDP). This document provides science, technology and innovation indicators to monitor the implementation of the South African Bioeconomy Strategy as recommended by the National Advisory Council on Innovation in South Africa. The study firstly provides an analysis of bioeconomy indicators in general and discusses sources of available literature from the following databases: Web of Science, Scopus, EconLit and Social Science Premium Collection. Within the bioeconomy definition, biotechnology is a common thread, however, the scope and measuring of the bioeconomy goes beyond the technology. Efforts by countries in measuring the bioeconomy at the policy level have been based on growth measures such as the contribution to GDP, however, such an approach offers an incomplete picture as it omits the environmental and social impacts of the bioeconomy. The results from the selected journal articles highlight that most academic papers discuss indicators of social, economic and environmental sustainability, yet there remains a gap as to how these interdependent sectors should be linked in order to develop a uniform methodology to measure all the aspects included in the bioeconomy. From the conclusion, the bioeconomy can be defined as the system that contributes to economic, social and technological development and is conducted without the depletion of natural resources. A comparison of changes in inputs as compared to changes in output over time will allow an assessment of the efficiency of the bioeconomy innovation system (e.g. if outputs grow more rapidly than inputs, the efficiency increases). The next components of the study focus on bioeconomy gross expenditure on research and development (R&D), business expenditure on R&D and the number of R&D personnel in the bioeconomy. These are key measures of inputs in the bioeconomy. The number of publications, patents and firms, and the value of exports in the bioeconomy were measured. These are key measures of outputs in the bioeconomy. The number of publications, patents and exports values are outlined for South Africa and compared with Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICS) and, to a certain extent, with Egypt, Nigeria, Germany, Malaysia and the United States of America (USA). The results show higher growth rates for resources committed for R&D in the bioeconomy compared to that of total research expenditures in South Africa. The growth rate for researchers in headcounts in bioeconomy were low compared to the growth rates for researchers in headcounts across all fields in South Africa. South Africa ranked last in the BRICS group in terms of the number of bioeconomy publications produced in the selected period and had a world share of 0.8%, which is higher than the national research average of 0.5%. The citations growth for South African bioeconomy publications increased by 6.8%, higher than Brazil, Russia and world citations during the period under review. The University of Cape Town is a leader in bioeconomy publications in South Africa, followed by University of Stellenbosch and the University of KwaZulu-Natal with majority of the publications on environmental sciences ecology. South Africa collaborates the most with institutions from the United States of America in bioeconomy research and the percent of international collaboration is similar to that of national scientific publications. South Africa experienced a decline in bioeconomy industry collaboration publications during this period. South Africa ranked last in the BRICS group but perfomed superior than Egypt and Nigeria in terms of the number of bioeconomy patents. The total patents citations for all BRICS members generally decreased and there were inconsistent growth rates observed. The important innovators of South Africa in this field are mainly universities and public research institutions as compared to other members of BRICS and Egypt which are dominated by private entities. Incentives that encourage collaboration between universities, research institutions and local innovation firms are required for the full realisation of South Africa’s Bioeconomy Strategy. There were 730 active bioeconomy firms in South Africa as of January 2021. South African gross exports total for bioeconomy industry sectors considered in this study were generally small compared to other members of BRICS. South Africa requires total growth of its innovative products and production processes.
Development of a risk reduction model for after-sales service on Chinese agricultural machinery in South Africa
Qin, Xiaoshun (University of Pretoria, 2021-10)
There is a plentiful of arable land in Africa and South Africa. Africa remains the region all over the world with the lowest power usage and the lowest level of agricultural mechanization (Daum and Birner 2019; Makini et al. 2020). As the development of cross-border e-commerce and economy progress, more and more Chinese farm equipment has been sold in Africa and South Africa. As of now, one of the most significant problems that trap the farmers and users in Africa and South Africa is after-sales service. However, many researchers focus on agricultural mechanization in Sub-Sahara Africa (Mrema, Kienzle, and Mpagalile 2018; Makini et al. 2020). Few academics are concentrating on the risk reduction of after-sales service of agricultural machinery in Africa and South Africa, which is largely beneficial to the sustainable agri-machinery enterprise as well as agricultural economic growth. This research aims to meet this gap mentioned above. This research aims to develop a risk reduction model of after-sales service on Chinese agricultural machinery in South Africa. The information on arable land and agricultural mechanization in Africa and South Africa will be shown in the literature review. The development process of Chinese farm machinery, the status quo of export on the farm machine as well as Chinese agricultural equipment in Africa and South Africa will be addressed in the literature review. Furthermore, the detailed knowledge of the after-sales service of agricultural machinery and risk management will also be elaborated in this part. This study's research methodology is an explanatory research method and design in which quantitative data will be collected and analyzed first, followed by qualitative data collection and analysis. The research population in this study includes staff, workers, directors, managers, CEOs as well as presidents who work at agricultural machinery enterprises. The government officials, staff, fellows, directors who research agricultural machinery and provide the service, information and knowledge for agri-machinery users have also been involved in this study. Meanwhile, the research population consists of academics, including professors, doctors and researchers whose study is about after-sales service of agricultural machinery or the relevant. On the other hand, the small-holder farmers or users who make use of farm machinery in both South Africa and China as well as other relevant people who know the after-sales service of agricultural machinery are also in the probe of the study population. Seven hundred thirty-nine closed-end questionnaires have been collected in Shandong province and Henan province in China. Due to the Covid-19, we cannot gather the questionnaires in South Africa. Furthermore, focus-group interviews have been conducted in South Africa and China. The principal axis factoring (PAF) with Promax rotation is employed to analyze the factors that influence the research's agricultural machinery's risk reduction. Bartlett's Test of Sphericity was highly significant at a p-value of 0.05, implying that the data is suitable for the factor analysis. Furthermore, the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy (KMO) was 0.903 and was more significant than 0.500, implying that the sample was adequate for the factor analysis. The result shows that experts (0.879), spare parts (0.841), and timely repair (0.823) are revealed to be the top three high loading factors that impact the risk reduction of agricultural machinery. A multiple regression analysis (MRA) is utilized to analyze the data collected from the structured questionnaires. Evidence from this study suggests that combining these financial resource factors have a large effect (F2 = 0.802) on the after-sales service of farm equipment. An analysis of the data using the structural equation modeling (SEM) procedure shows relative contributions of a better understanding of risk reduction for after-sale services on agricultural machinery. From the standardized estimates, the study reveals that all the hypotheses have been supported. Finally, the risk reduction model of the after-sales service has been certified by means of the method employed mentioned above. Furthermore, the thematic content analysis is employed to analyze the data from the focus-group interviews conducted both in South Africa and China. In conclusion, the findings obtained from the questionnaires and focus-group interviews do indeed meet the research questions and validate the objectives largely. The risk reduction of agricultural machinery can facilitate sustainable agri-machinery enterprises that can enhance and improve the agricultural economic growth. Finally, this research provides an empirical contribution to the socio-economic sphere and literature via which it can benefit the South African and Chinese agricultural economy and policy-making sector.
Readiness Assessment for Mining Projects
Mulder, Hardus (University of Pretoria, 2020)
The front–end planning phase of a project potentially has the biggest impact on the outcome of the implementation phase. Globally, significant research has been conducted into the relationship between the quality of front–end planning and the success of the implementation phase of a project. Several tools have been developed to assess the level of readiness of a project study to proceed into detail design and implementation. However, no such commonly available tool existed for mining projects. The available assessment tools are either generic, not specific to mining projects and therefore do not include many of the elements which are critical to mining projects, or the property of consulting firms. In order to create an Assessment Tool for Mining Project front–end planning, the first step was to evaluate the mining industry and identify all of the elements which should be addressed during a mining project study. This was done through a literature review (which included existing front–end planning evaluation tools), as well as focus groups and surveys. The result was a list of 180 elements which should be considered during a mining project study. To incorporate a metric structure for quantitative evaluation, the Project Definition Readiness Index (PDRI) format as utilized by the Construction Industry Institute (CII) was used. This resulted in the 180 elements being divided into four sections and 18 categories. Since not all elements contributed equally to project success, weights were assigned to each element. The weighting process involved asking experienced mining project professionals to assign weights to each element. After the data were reviewed and adjusted for normality, a weighted list of elements was created which would comprise the Readiness Assessment Tool (RAT) for mining projects. The weighting also provided a quantitative assessment value, based on which a decision can be made about whether or not to proceed to the next project phase. To validate the instrument, the completed RAT for Mining Projects was tested against completed projects. The validation process indicated that there was a significant correlation between the RAT score of a project, and the eventual implementation success. The validation process also highlighted some dominant performance indicators that could influence project results. The performance indicator relating to the performance of the completed project against expectations was found to have the most significant correlation with the RAT score and accounted for 39% of the variability. This was closely followed by the impact of change orders, which had the second–highest correlation to the RAT score (36.2%). Similarly, 8% of the variability in Cost Performance and 7.9% of the variability in Schedule Performance could be explained by the RAT score. The RAT score can explain 3.02% of the variability in the Operating Score of a project and 3.86% of the variability in the Customer Score. By creating a comprehensive, weighted list of elements to be addressed during the front–end phase of a mining project, the RAT for mining projects can assist project team members in coming to a common understanding of the areas which need to be studied, as well as the relative importance of the various elements. The most significant contribution of this study is that project teams can use the RAT as a self–assessment tool during any stage of the project study and identify the areas of the study which require more definition. Teams can also use the RAT to calculate an overall RAT rating at any stage, which will indicate the overall level of readiness to proceed into the next phase of the project. Through assessing the completeness of each of the 180 elements to determine a single RAT score, the RAT can assist project members, as well as decision–makers such as Boards of Directors, to make informed decisions regarding the approval of projects. Finally, depending on the accuracy and reliability of input data, the RAT should improve the probability of a successful project.
A novel systems approach to energy poverty in sub-Saharan Africa : a South African informal settlement case study
Okoye, Perpetua Ifeoma (University of Pretoria, 2020)
Mitigating energy poverty requires a multi-criteria decision protocol integrating socio-economic, cultural, environmental, and technical systems, influencing energy access, and consumption. Situations of energy poverty are typical in rural and urban poor households, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. These situations are commonly prevalent in informal settlements, sprawling across the periphery of South African metros. Majorities of informal households lack access to grid-electricity and consume local energy sources for their energy needs. There are ongoing government efforts directed to mitigating energy poverty among energy-poor households, such as informal households, through policies and subsidies. Socio-economic and cultural environments also redefine the extent to which energy poverty is mitigated in these households. At present, informal households are constantly and rapidly growing, and as a result, compromise policy effectiveness and other functional strategies, targeting to mitigating energy poverty in these households, and achieving universal energy access in South Africa. Accordingly, this research study adopted a multidisciplinary approach to understanding related matters of energy poverty based on energy policies; electricity access, and pricing; geospatial analysis; energy use and access; and management strategies, with emphasis on informal settlements in South Africa. The first part of the study reviewed energy pro-poor policies, relevant to improving energy access and energy-use efficiency in energy-poor households in South Africa. The study also investigated electricity access (access rates), connection costs (access costs), and electricity tariffs to understand historical precedents and forecast scenarios, and the relationships to gaining complete electricity access by 2030 in the City of Cape Town. The third part mapped and monitored informal areas to understand landscape processes and poverty with energy poverty propagations by Land Cover (LC) and Land-Cover Change (LCC) in the City of Cape Town. The fourth part of the research investigated energy-use patterns and other energy-related matters in a selected informal settlement - a typical case study of an energy-poor community in South Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. The last part proposed and designed a novel System Reinforcing Model (SRM), an Energy Access Sustainability (EAS) management scheme, applicable to mitigating energy poverty in any energy-poor community. The study review validated government efforts in improving energy access in energy-poor households through commissioned energy pro-poor policies but not without drawbacks and proposed recommendations to support future policy reforms. The research also revealed iv A novel systems approach to energy poverty in sub-Saharan Africa: A South African informal settlement as case study. increasing patterns in historical trends of access rates, costs, and tariffs, and relationships between parameters within the assessment period (from 2010 to 2018). The forecast analyses (from 2019 to 2030) demonstrated that total electricity access could not be reached by 2030 without a shift in Business-As-Usual (BAU) patterns in the City of Cape Town. The LC conversions of informal areas revealed poverty with energy poverty propagations through landscape degradation processes - Persistence and Intensification - in the City of Cape Town. The research study further revealed poor energy use patterns and behaviour in the target Settlement. Informal households in the settlement mainly adopted local energy fuels and appliances in satisfying household energy needs. The novel part of the research study described the application of a systems approach - Systems engineering (SE) and Systems Thinking (SsT) - into energy poverty and access processes to developing the new SRM. SE and SsT concept analyses were employed in identifying and integrating four operating system interfaces in these processes into the new SRM. The new SRM simulated complex systems and elements within the interfaces and categorized them as design decisions and system designs. These systems and elements were grounded in energy-use patterns and behaviour, energy access, and EAS, as well as socio-economic, cultural, technical, and environmental features. Arrays of feedback loops in reinforcing patterns in the new SRM modelled the interactions between, and within, design decisions and system designs, for future energy access rebranding, based on significant sustainability outcomes of favourably coalesced system interfaces. SRM was applied in the target settlement, where the model’s significance was validated. Based on its multi-criteria decision approach, among its many features, SRM revealed system parts instigating energy poverty situations and limiting EAS in the target settlement. SRM tailored energy access solutions, whilst integrating significant outcomes of the whole research study, to advancing energy poverty mitigation and EAS in the target settlement.
A critical evaluation of risk on large scale logistics projects
Xu, Dafeng (University of Pretoria, 2020-02-22)
As an important basis in decision-making, risk assessment has been applied in many fields. However, most risk analyses of logistics projects are still at their infancy, wherein qualitative methods are applied. Performing further qualitative and quantitative analyses of the risk of logistics projects is meaningful. This thesis aims to thoroughly analyse the effects of risk factors on project objectives to illustrate the economic goals of investment and the possibility of realisation. Hence, it can promote scientific decision-making by investors, which is the main issue in this thesis. Large-scale logistics projects are characterised by high risk, high investment, and high professionalism. This thesis applies risk assessment to logistics projects and divides the risk assessment of logistics projects into two levels. In the first level, various risk factors in the process of investment, construction and operation of the logistics projects are fully considered, and a set of risk comprehensive evaluation index system for the logistics projects is established. At this level, this thesis assigns light to each factor, judges the degree of risk of each factor in logistics projects and evaluates the risk degree of the logistics projects via fuzzy comprehensive measurement method (FCMM). It proposes a logistic alliance risk identification and analysis method based on the particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm and penalty function method to address the limitation of existing methods, such as FCMM. This proposed method is called PSO–analytic hierarchy process (PSO–AHP). On the basis of the introduced index system and methods, this thesis uses Hanjin Shipping as a novel case to show how risk evaluation is performed. Results show that both methods can be used to predict the risk of Hanjin Shipping, and management risk is the main risk faced by Hanjin Shipping. This finding is consistent with the predicted results. The contents of this thesis provide meaningful results for actual application. Thus, the models and index system applied in this thesis (FCMM and PSO–AHP) can be used to perform risk measurement. In the second level, combined with the results of the overall risk assessment of the logistics projects, this thesis provides several suggestions on risk prevention for these kind of logistics projects. This thesis not only measures the risk of large-scale logistics projects but also provides several strategies to improve the management of logistics projects and reduce the probability of risk in the Chinese context. Moreover, this thesis generates suggestions for the development of Chinese large-scale logistics projects in South Africa. The main contents of this thesis can be summarised as follows. The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter briefly introduces the background of large-scale logistics projects, explains the purpose and significance of the research and introduces the main research issues and innovations. It also briefly introduces the structure of this thesis. The second chapter comprises a review of previous studies. It mainly reviews and summarizes relevant literature on risk theory and logistics risk to provide a solid background analysis for the remaining part of this thesis. The third and the fourth chapters are about the methodologies and indicators used in this thesis. The third chapter summarises and introduces the main methods used in the risk assessment for the logistics projects. It focuses on the methods used in this thesis. The fourth chapter presents a systematic analysis of the various risks faced in the process of investment, construction and operation of logistics projects. It appropriately enumerates the main analysis of this thesis, namely, the various risks in large-scale logistics projects. An index system is also constructed in this chapter. The fifth and sixth chapters focus on the specific operation process of the models used in this thesis. These chapters focus on the data analysis according to the models proposed in previous chapters, and the results of quantitative analysis are mainly discussed. The seventh chapter is aimed at the risk prevention of large-scale logistics projects. The eighth chapter is the research summary and outlook, where it summarises the conclusions and shortcomings of this research, discusses the innovation of this thesis from the analysis and indicates further research directions. The main contributions of this thesis are as follows. (1) On the basis of China’s Belt and Road strategy, this thesis pays special interest on the risk analysis of large-scale logistics projects. With the development of Chinese economics and special relationship with South Africa, cooperating in aspects where logistics projects play a great connecting role becomes increasingly important for these countries Thus, ensuring how the risk of China’s large-scale logistics projects is sufficiently low becomes increasingly important. The methods and results in this thesis can be applied to the large-scale logistics projects in China and South Africa. (2) Many studies on risk assessment issues obtain risk factors using Delphi method (Dalkey and Helmer, 1963; Fan, 2019; Dufour et al., 2017). This method usually suffers from the fact that the experts’ knowledge, ability and experience limit their personal judgement method, and the recognition result is influenced by the subjective factors of the experts. This thesis does not use AHP method on it own but focuses on the usage of work breakdown structure (WBS) method to determine the risk factors of logistics construction projects, which can provide a reasonable risk index system. As WBS can let people carefully build an index system from each aspect of the large-scale logistics projects. (3) This thesis generates a PSO method to PSO–AHP method and applies it in the risk assessment of large-scale logistics projects, in which Hanjin Shipping is taken as an example in a novel way. Many studies primarily use FCMM to perform the risk assessment. However, limited research focuses on the use of PSO–AHP methods on the risk assessment of large-scale logistics projects. This thesis not only uses FCMM to handle risk assessment but also uses PSO–AHP method and then selects the better method on the basis of certain criteria. By doing so, this thesis provides an excellent example for researchers to select between the two models for risk assessment. (4) This thesis not only measures the risk of large-scale logistics projects but also provides several strategies that can improve the management of logistics projects to reduce the chance of risk happening based on actual situations. It also generates suggestions for the development of Chinese large-scale logistics projects in South Africa. As the measurement of risk in terms of large-scale logistics projects is an instrument for people to prevent risk, each method should be used to guide the development in actual situations. Thus, this thesis provides several strategy suggestions that can reduce the risk of large-scale logistics projects in China and South Africa by combining the results obtained from models and actual situations in China and South Africa.
A Roadmap for the Titanium Metal Industry of South Africa
Roux, Nicolene (University of Pretoria, 2020)
The South African titanium metal industry is underdeveloped and has a fragmented value chain. The aim of this study was to investigate fragmentation within the local titanium metal value chain by using industry technology roadmapping as a tool to comment on the completeness of each value chain stage. Roadmapping for the period 2021 to 2030 was applied to a novel value chain produced for the local titanium metal industry. Within the fragmented value chain, it was indicated that from the eight identified stages only four were established locally. The identified stages of the titanium metal value chain were: stage 1 - mineral reserves; stage 2 - slag; stage 3 – TiCl4; stage 4 – sponge; stage 5 – melted products; stage 6 – mill products; stage 7 – metal powder production and stage 8 – metal powder products. Stages 1, 2, 6 and 8 are already established in South Africa. The roadmapping type selected to address the fragmented South African titanium metal value chain was an industry technology roadmap. This type of roadmap focuses on forecasting the development, commercialisation and deployment of new technologies. The overall industry roadmap was designed using individual roadmaps for the value chain stages. These individual roadmaps were used as a guideline on what to include and what to exclude from the overall industry roadmap. The technology roadmap layout consisted of five layers namely market, product, technology, R&D, and resources. These roadmapping layers were applied to each stage of the titanium metal value chain resulting in the production of individual roadmaps for each stage. The roadmap model was based on the three fundamental questions in roadmapping: “Where are we now?” addressing the current state of each value chain stage, “Where do we want to go?” addressing the vision elements for each value chain stage and “How will we get there?” addressing how the vision elements would be achieved for each value chain stage. The methodology used in this study relied on data collection from two main sources. The first was primary data collected through conducting interviews and a survey. The main aim of the interviews (conducted with industry and R&D experts) was to establish a vision element for each of the titanium metal value chain stages which was validated though the survey. Secondary data was then combined with the collected expert driven data in order to follow the selected roadmapping approach and complete a roadmap for each of the value chain stages following the specified layers (top-down approach). The vision elements were then combined to obtain an overall South African titanium metal value chain vision. The consolidated vision, based on what should be included in the South African titanium metal value chain and what not, was used as driver for compiling the overall South African titanium metal industry roadmap. This was done by considering and combining the required actions needed from the value chain stage roadmaps (top-down visioning approach) to achieve the identified overall roadmap (bottom-up visioning approach). The newly developed vision for the South African titanium metal industry is: South Africa should continue to mine and upgrade titanium mineral concentrates in a sustainable and efficient manner. The country should commit to the establishment of two additional stages within the titanium metal value chain, which is TiCl4 production and titanium metal powder production. Capacity and expertise within the two already developed downstream stages (mill product and powder product production) should be expanded for both the local and the export markets. Within the mill product market, the focus should be on producing products for the medical, chemical and aerospace industries while the powder product markets should focus on medical, aerospace, leisure and automotive industries. In addition to the vision and roadmap establishment, other outcomes of this study indicated that the South African titanium metal industry is fragmented and should remain fragmented over the next decade. This thesis presents novel research on the production of a roadmap for a fragmented industry. To the best knowledge of the author, no other industry roadmap approach has first considered the production of individual roadmaps in a fragmented value chain and then combine them into a single overall industry technology roadmap. South Africa can apply the newly obtained titanium industry vision and roadmap, since there was no prior vision that addressed the development of the industry’s fragmented value chain. The newly produced roadmap can be used to advance and develop the South African titanium metal industry in order to improve local value addition to the already existing resources.
A systematic design of e-commerce logistic from collaborative management theory perspective
Liu, Huaqiong (University of Pretoria, 2020)
In the 21st century, e-commerce (electronic commerce) has witnessed explosive development, while the problems such as the imperfect logistics system and backward information platform exposed are also increasing. This research thesis focuses on the design of electronic commerce project logistics under collaborative theory. Firstly, this research analyses the current situation of e-commerce, and explains relevant theories of system engineering and collaborative theory. Secondly, a management framework of e-commerce under collaborative theory is discussed. Then it is about the construction of a new and novel logistics system, that is, a four-stage radial-spoke logistics network containing e-commerce hubs, e-commerce regional distribution centres, e-commerce physical stores, and e-commerce cooperatives. The existing logistics mode is innovated and developed with the “collaborative distribution” mode proposed, and the entire supply chain is connected through the four-stage radial-spoke logistics network, enabling all parties involved in the supply chain to achieve collaboration. Then based on the network, containers are differentiated and standardized into four classes. What’s more, with the design and development of a collaborative logistics system, this thesis presents countermeasures to integrate e-commerce with its internal management platform. So the growing information is effectively managed, timely and correct decision-making information and decision support are provided. Furthermore, previous e-commerce platform is strengthened and the collaborative theory is fundamentally applied in a novel context. Finally, combining together logistics alliance, e-commerce platforms as well as its management system, this research is aimed to improve e-commerce collaborative management and promote e-commerce collaborative theory.
The South African polycentric water resource governance-management nexus : parlaying an institutional agent and structured social engagement
Boonzaaier, Johann H. (University of Pretoria, 2018)
Water resource concerns, coupled with subsequent intensive needs for energy and food production along with the greatest deterioration of ecosystems seen during the last 50 years were identified as a global crisis in the 20th century. The World Economic Forum rated the world water supply crisis as the fourth most worrying global risk in terms of risk likelihood and risk impact. Natural water resources are seriously threatened by the growing population, outstripping the capacity of the earth to produce subsistence for human beings. South Africa is restricted as a water scarce country. Despite its progressive water laws and policies, a review undertaken for Africa Water Vision 2025, revealed many critical shortcomings and failures. Evidence reveal that critical constraints in the governance-management process of implementing environmental policies and WRM care lie in a lack of efficient trans-disciplinary dialogue between policymakers, scientists, water managers and users and governance structures. To address the governance and institutional void, the fundamental research question sought to determine whether a local institutional agent could be parlayed to bridge the fragmentation between multiple users and governmental institutional structures and levels. Through longitudinal action research, the unique case of a mature self-steering local water management institution, the Impala Water Users Association in the Pongola River catchment in northern KZN of South Africa was evaluated. The study examined engagement with local stake holders to execute water resource governance and management in a polycentric multi-stakeholder scenario in South Africa. It aimed to restore and protect the resilience of the natural environment that is critical for fresh water resources to ensure sustainable long term water security of the Pongola River catchment. A number of vulnerabilities and weak points of society as well as spheres of governmental authorities were identified. While South Africa experiences an era of institutional and governance uncertainty, it was demonstrated and is submitted that the well positioned water users’ associations in South Africa could fill the governance-management void left on a catchment scale. A polycentric approach to govern and manage water as a common pool resource was possible through the facilitation and structured engagement of a stable and suitable agent. While it is acknowledged that multi stakeholder engagement and water resource management is highly complex and taxing, it is argued that cooperative action among users can succeed in achieving many mutual water security goals and solving their immediate threats on the local scale. A polycentric institutional model is proposed by linking different role player clusters around a specific facilitating institutional agent
Convergence from chaos to order in capital projects using chaos attractors – an explorative study
Hasse, Gunther Willy (University of Pretoria, 2020-01)
Successful capital projects contribute to sustain society and accelerate socio-economic development due to its inherent multiplier effect. The linear project management paradigm does not seem to stem either historical or current capital project cost overruns and failures. Accelerative societal change in terms of trends, megatrends, paradigm shifts, Black Swan events, and disruptive technologies require capital projects to be executed in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous environment that is expected to result in more chaos and failures of capital projects. This research contributes to the non-linear ‘management by chaos’ paradigm and develops and test chaos theories and models for employment in capital projects. The objective of this research is to explore if chaos attractors could cause local convergence (first research question) and overall convergence (second research question) from chaos to order in capital projects and thereby contribute to reduce capital project cost overruns and failures. Using the grand chaos theory and literature references to chaos attractor metaphors as a starting point, six lower-level chaos theories and variance models were built for fixed-point attractors, fixed-point repellers, limit-cycle attractors, torus attractors, butterfly attractors and strange attractors. One lower level-theory and variance model were built for a landscape that comprised of the six chaos attractors. A randomness-chaos-complexity-order continuum model was derived from literature to represent the context within which dynamic capital project behaviour unfolds. Assuming a constructivist research paradigm, a two-round qualitative explorative research strategy was employed with the capital project as the unit of analysis. The Nominal Group Technique was employed in the first round of interviews with 12 experienced capital project managers to obtain grounded definitions, an understanding of the randomness-chaos-complexity-order continuum model and the concept of chaos attractors. Voice recordings from interviews were transcribed and content analysis was done using the Atlas.ti software. Five capital project archetypes were identified by respondents. This was followed by a second round of deep individual interviews using semi-structured questions with 14 experienced capital project managers. Content analysis was used to confirm the archetypes and test the transferability and convergence effect from chaos to order of the six chaos metaphors and one landscape of the six chaos metaphors to the capital project domain. Evidence was found in terms of examples, characteristics, value statements and variance model scoring to suggest that local convergence in capital projects from chaos to order could occur as a result of the six individual chaos attractors. Similarly, that overall project convergence could occur as a result of a specific constellation of these six chaos attractors located across the capital project life cycle. Nine convergence-divergence archetypes were defined by respondents that described the dynamic behaviour of different types of capital projects in the randomness-chaos-complexity-order continuum. It was also found that achieving capital project convergence from chaos towards an ordered project state, using chaos attractors, do not imply project success. However, an ordered project state could aid the minimisation of capital project cost overruns. “Chaos theory considers the convergence from chaos to order a natural phenomenon in capital projects that is brought about by the following six chaos attractors: fixed-point, repeller, limit-cycle, torus, butterfly and strange”. This exploratory research found evidence to support the existence of this grand theory and its associated mid-range and lower-level theories, but further research is required to validate the generalisation of these findings.

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