Title page for ETD etd-11302009-185214


Document Type Master's Dissertation
Author Roux, Belinda
Email broux.belinda@gmail.com
URN etd-11302009-185214
Document Title Ultra high-resolution climate simulations over the Stellenbosch wine producing region using a variable-resolution model
Degree MSc
Department Geography, Geo-Informatics and Meteorology
Supervisor
Advisor Name Title
Dr F A Engelbrecht Supervisor
Keywords
  • conformal-cubic atmospheric
  • climate simulations
  • Stellenbosch wine producing region
Date 2009-09-02
Availability unrestricted
Abstract
The study aims to generate a simulated, ultra high-resolution climatology over the southwestern Cape of South Africa, and in particular the Stellenbosch wine producing region, by the dynamical downscaling of observed synoptic-scale circulation. A variable-resolution global model, the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM), and a multiple-nudging strategy are applied in order to reach this goal. CCAM is employed in stretched-grid mode as a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate climate for the period 1976-2005 at four different spatial resolutions. Nudging from coarse-resoltion (2.5 in latitude and longitude), the model was first applied at a 60 km resolution over southern Africa in order to obtain a simulation of the synoptic-scale circulation over the region. Two higher resolution simulations, at 8 km and 1 km resolution, were obtained consecutively over the western and southwestern Cape, nudging from the 60 km and 8 km simulations, respectively. Finally, a 200 m simulation was performed over the Stellenbosch region. Because of the high computational requirements of high-resolution runs, each progressively higher resolution simulation is performed over a progressively smaller area of interest over which the spatial resolution is high. The simulations verify well against observed datasets, and generally capture the important climatic features over the area of interest. The 60 km CCAM simulation gives a good representation of the synoptic scale weather over southern Africa, with realistic seasonal circulation patterns and rainfall percentages as well as intra-annual rainfall totals over various regions. The mesoscale climate over the Western Cape of South Africa is captured by the 8 km simulation, especially with respect to seasonal variations in temperature and rainfall percentages - although the actual rainfall over the southwestern tip of the Western Cape is severely underestimated. The ultra high-resolution simulated diurnal cycle of temperature, relative humidity and screen level wind speed compared well against observations for the month of February. The CCAM climate simulations might not be accurate enough for some of the very sensitive studies of the wine industry, but it can have great value for the demarcation of areas which are climatically suited for viticulture and some more general viticultural studies. Ultra high-resolution climate parameter maps are presented for 1976-2005.

2009, University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria.

Please cite as follows:

Roux, B 2009, Ultra high-resolution climate simulations over the Stellenbosch wine producing region using a variable-resolution model, MSc dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd < http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-11302009-185214/ >

E1504/ag

Files
  Filename       Size       Approximate Download Time (Hours:Minutes:Seconds) 
 
 28.8 Modem   56K Modem   ISDN (64 Kb)   ISDN (128 Kb)   Higher-speed Access 
  dissertation.pdf 5.09 Mb 00:23:35 00:12:07 00:10:36 00:05:18 00:00:27

Browse All Available ETDs by ( Author | Department )

If you have more questions or technical problems, please Contact UPeTD.