Document Type	Doctoral Thesis
Author	Bernhardt, Wilhelm
URN	etd-05052005-162339
Document Title	A qualitative conceptual framework for conducting risk- and threat assessment in the South African domestic intelligence environment
Degree	DPhil(Political Sciences)
Department	Political Sciences
Supervisor	Advisor Name Title Prof M Hough Committee Chair
Keywords	environmental scanning threat risk assessment policymaking potential threats national security threat analysis intelligence risk domestic security methodology future studies early warning decisionmaking
Date	2003-07-24
Availability	restricted
Abstract This thesis concerns itself with the related topics of intelligence threat analysis and early warning. The aim of the study is to contribute, from an academic perspective, towards improving the standards of analytic excellence in the South African domestic intelligence community with regard to these disciplines. Simultaneously the study attempts to provide insight into the use of intelligence threat analysis and early warning as decision and policymaking tools in the context of national security issues. The overall objective is to construct and propose a conceptual framework and methodology for conducting intelligence threat analysis and early warning in the context of civilian, domestic intelligence practice in South Africa. In pursuit of achieving the study’s objectives, it was consequently proposed that intelligence analysts need to be furnished with a better understanding of the difference between threats and potential threats. It was proposed that the latter type of issues be referred to as “security risks”, whilst the former should be referred to as “security threats”. Further, that the traditional notion of intelligence threat analysis should be consolidated in two related sub-disciplines – Intelligence Risk Assessment and Intelligence Threat Assessment. It was lastly suggested that these sub-disciplines could be constructed from a study of existing intelligence and national security practices – both internationally and in South Africa, as well as from information obtained from related disciplines in the business world, such as Risk Analysis, Future Studies and Strategic Business Management. Copyright 2003, University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. Please cite as follows: Bernhardt, W 2003, A qualitative conceptual framework for conducting risk- and threat assessment in the South African domestic intelligence environment, DPhil thesis, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd < http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-05052005-162339 / >
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