Title page for ETD etd-04012010-123113

Document Type Master's Dissertation
Author Staples, Glenn William
URN etd-04012010-123113
Document Title Influenza pandemic modelling for South Africa with an analysis of the predicted impact on the healthcare sector
Degree MBA
Department Gordon Institute of Business Science
Advisor Name Title
Dr R Raina Supervisor
  • medical care
Date 2007-04-05
Availability unrestricted

The predicted impact of a potential future influenza pandemic was modelled for South Africa using a multi-state Markov transition model based on key parameters from the pandemics of the twentieth century. The number of individuals falling into each of the following categories was predicted for each week in the pandemic: healthy (uninfected); infected (no treatment); infected (out-patient treatment); infected (hospital admission); infected (ICU admission); healthy (flu recovery) and dead. Four scenarios were modelled. The Mild and Severe Pandemic Scenarios were then applied to estimations of current hospital and ICU bed spare capacity in each province to provide a prediction of the impact of a pandemic on hospital capacity.

The Mild Pandemic Scenario, based on the 1957 and 1968 pandemics, showed a 9.1% total infection rate and a 0.13% mortality rate. Hospital bed capacity is stretched close to capacity, but does not exceed capacity in any province. ICU bed capacity is exceeded for all provinces during the peak of the pandemic (3-7 weeks).

The Severe Pandemic Scenario, based on the 1918 pandemic, had a 22% total infection rate with a 2.5% mortality rate. Hospital and ICU bed capacities were exceeded in all provinces for much of the pandemic.

2006 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria

Please cite as follows:

Staples, G 2006, Influenza pandemic modeling for South Africa with an analysis of the predicted impact on the healthcare sector, MBA dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd < http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-04012010-123113/ >


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