Exploring mode choice behaviour and preferences of transport users in small cities in South Africa : the case study of Bloemfontein

Abstract

This study investigates mode choice behaviour and transport preferences in Bloemfontein, South Africa, a medium-sized metropolitan area facing distinct transportation challenges related to accessibility, affordability, and limited modal integration. While urban mobility research in South Africa has largely focused on major metropolitan regions, smaller cities such as Bloemfontein require tailored, context-sensitive strategies to address their specific economic, spatial, and social dynamics. Adopting a pragmatic research paradigm and guided by the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), this study employs a structured quantitative research design and an Ordinal Logistic Regression Model to examine the factors shaping user preferences across private vehicle (PV), public transport (PT), and non-motorized transport (NMT) modes. Key predictors evaluated include accessibility, reliability, affordability, flexibility, and perceived health benefits. Data were collected through a structured survey targeting regular commuters across different demographic groups. Initial descriptive analysis revealed that demographic variables, particularly gender, age, and employment status, significantly influence transport choices. Women tended to prioritize safety and personal security, while men placed greater emphasis on reliability and on-road performance. Full-time employees showed stronger preferences for PV and PT, whereas part-time workers and unemployed respondents relied more heavily on NMT, reflecting differences in income levels, travel constraints, and daily activity patterns. Subsequent regression analysis confirmed that accessibility (ease of accessing a service) is the most significant predictor of mode choice, followed by service reliability and affordability. While safety concerns remain relevant, their influence was comparatively weaker than service quality and convenience factors. The findings further indicate a substantial willingness among PV users to shift to PT if improvements in reliability, flexible operating hours, and transparency of service information are implemented. The integration of NMT infrastructure, including pedestrian-friendly environments, bike-sharing programmes, and park-and-ride facilities, is identified as essential for strengthening first- and last-mile connectivity. Overall, the study provides empirically grounded, user-focused insights to inform transport policy and planning in smaller cities. By linking behavioural theory with quantitative evidence, the findings support targeted interventions aimed at enhancing PT accessibility, affordability, and reliability, thereby contributing to more inclusive, sustainable, and equitable urban transport systems.